How climate change affects the water cycle in the Arctic
Polish scientists, including researchers from the University of Wrocław, have investigated how climate change is reshaping the Arctic water cycle. The results of their analysis can be used to develop strategies to minimize the risks associated with extreme hydrological events in the polar and alpine regions.
Dr Łukasz Stachnik, prof. Krzysztof Migała, dr hab. Mirosław Wąsik, prof. dr hab. Henryk Marszałek, mgr. Aleksandra Wołoszyn, dr hab. Marek Kasprzak from the Cold Regions Research Centre, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Wrocław, dr Elżbieta Łepkowska and dr Dariusz Ignatiuk from the University of Silesia, dr Natalia Pilguj from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, dr Anna Zielonka from the Institute of Nature Conservation of the Polish Academy of Sciences, and dr Maciej Bartosiewicz from the Institute of Geophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences published an article titled ”Resolving the climate-controlled hydrological regime in a model permafrost catchment for future management strategies” in the Journal of Environmental Management which is a prestigious journal in the Earth and Environmental Sciences discipline (5-year Impact Factor: 8,0, 200 points according to the Ministry of Science and Higher Education).
The most intense climate changes occurring in the Arctic have led to rapid warming and increased precipitation. Until now, the impact of these swift changes on the water cycle in polar regions had not been thoroughly documented using long-term observational data. In 2025, a team of Polish polar researchers undertook an analysis of hydro-meteorological data from the Bratteggdalen glacial catchment (Svalbard), located near the Baranowski Research Station. This ecosystem served as a model of a glacial catchment formed on continuous permafrost, shaped by the accelerated retreat of the Brattegg Glacier.
Polish scientists, using high-quality data from 2005–2019 alongside archival measurements from the 1970s and 1980s, have identified how changing meteorological conditions shape water flows during the long-term evolution of the hydrological system. Their findings indicate that the largest — and often extreme — volumes of runoff in the model glacial catchment are directly linked to increasing precipitation and enhanced surface runoff over long-term permafrost. Seasonal flood events, triggered by intense rainfall on existing snow cover, accelerate snowmelt and lead to rapid water influxes. When snow cover disappears in the warmer half of the year, air temperature becomes the dominant factor influencing the glacier’s water cycle.
In addition, the researchers demonstrated that between 1979 and 2019, the Arctic experienced significant springtime warming, accompanied by an increase in summer precipitation. The findings of the Polish polar scientists suggest that if the rate of climatic change continues at a similar or faster pace, the warmer half of the year will become increasingly critical in shaping the region’s overall water balance.
The connection between water flow and geological processes in polar regions is closely tied to the properties of permafrost — ground, sediment, or rock that remains at sub-zero temperatures for at least several consecutive years. Each summer, the uppermost layer of permafrost thaws, creating what is known as the active layer. As air temperatures rise, the thickness of the active layer increases, accelerating water circulation. The findings of these studies indicate that air temperature — and to a lesser extent, precipitation — is the primary driver of hydrological processes in catchments underlain by permafrost.
This research sheds light on how climate change influences the Arctic water cycle. The findings can contribute to developing strategies to reduce the risks associated with extreme hydrological events in polar and alpine regions. The article was published in the Journal of Environmental Management (Ministry of Science and Higher Education credit =200 points, Factor = 8.0).
The University of Wrocław’s Excellence Initiative – Research University program (Open Access Fund competition) supported the open access fee.
Text Łukasz Stachnik (Research Centre for Cold Regions, University of Wrocław), Maciej Bartosiewicz (Department of Polar and Marine Research, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences)
Translated by Zuzanna Sobkowiak (student of English Studies at the University of Wrocław) as part of the translation practice.
Added by: E.K.
Date of publication: 06.05.2025
